Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The average count of per-day homicides per month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new government figures. But, security experts have advised that homicide data might not point to improved countrywide stability.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in November versus roughly 87 when the President took the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we’ve had during these months is very notable,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that in November the smallest figure of murders were registered for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Fierce cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly military operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than the US. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her national security strategy for an apparently steeper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is particularly true given the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for assessing the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to accurately recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it could mask periods when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day average renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

However in spite of these actions, Mexico is still beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the country to express their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.