An Enduring Ceasefire Involving Israel and Palestine? We have Seen This Pattern – The Result Was Increased Conflict
So, which year is this? The White House occupant, after months of implicit backing, has ultimately stepped in to halt an Israeli military offensive that has transformed large areas of a urban center in the region to rubble, causing numerous individuals killed and generating international condemnation.
This military action has followed a series of attacks on Israel. Presently, under pressure from the US administration, the Israel's leader, a right-leaning figure with a talent for populist rhetoric and an intense sense of Zionist historical purpose, has agreed to a halt in hostilities.
Past Echoes
The time period is not present day, but four decades ago. The city is not present-day Gaza, but Beirut. The American president is Ronald Reagan, not today's leadership.
We find many differences between what happened in Lebanon more than four decades ago and what has happened in Gaza in the past two years. The Hamas raid of recent times, which killed over a thousand and involved 250 taken hostage, shows limited similarity with the somewhat modest activities of the Palestine Liberation Organization in the period prior to the Israeli incursion of the Lebanese nation.
Striking Parallels
Some are uncanny. The US leader eventually contacted the prime minister, stating to him that events in the capital was "a disaster" and explaining the relations between their countries could be seriously harmed if the conflict carried on.
During that period, similar to current times, the fighting played out in live on global media. Hundreds journalists flew into the city to document for the first time an regional battle without censorship by the combatants.
Subsequent Developments
The events subsequent to the communication from the US president and the ceasefire in Lebanon is instructive. The Palestinian organization, its factions and officials were dispersed across multiple countries and a dozen countries.
The US administration then pulled out US-led peacekeepers – a violation of the agreement with the Palestinian leader. The elected leader, the country's freshly appointed president and Israel's preferred proxy, was assassinated by Syrian security services.
Area-wide Shifts
Similar patterns emerged across the rest of the region. By the late seventies, the predominantly worldly and progressive ideas that had appeared to provide the hope of a new future in the Middle Eastern nations a decade or so earlier were weakened.
The outcomes of this became very clear, very quickly
Across the region, the Israeli state and the United States now encountered adversaries who were much more intractable, deadly and capable than the leftists and nationalists of the past.
International Reaction
In the west, the outcomes of this were counterintuitive. Throughout the that decade, western analysts and officials had attempted to comprehend what caused militant radicalism.
Then, in the start of the eighties, this ceased. Political leaders in the America, the UK and other nations were ceased being concerned in "root causes" of unrest.
Current Similarities
Last week, accounts show that current leadership informed government representatives that Israel could not confront global opinion and acknowledged Palestinian aspirations for a state.
This also was an parallel of historical precedent. In the consequence of the armed entry of Lebanon, earlier administration told Israel that the capability of its defense establishment alone could not "establish enduring settlement" and recognized "justified demands of the Palestinian population."
However a US-led regional peace plan meant to address those concerns went nowhere. From exile, Palestinian leadership watched impotently.
Worldwide concern in the region waned. The state rejected accommodations. Subsequently, there was the first intifada, and the creation of further armed organizations.
- The repetitions of the past offer serious lessons for present-day resolution attempts
- Permanent settlements require addressing fundamental problems rather than temporary ceasefires
- Local circumstances continue to change in complex and frequently surprising ways